How to make a decision in uncertainty?

Photo by Jr Korpa on Unsplash

It is difficult to make the right decision. Even more difficult in a fast-changing world with countless opportunities growing exponentially.

There comes a time in each person’s life when everything seems uncertain. Undecided what we should do next, undetermined where we are going, uncertain what we think about something, and often unsure about who we are and what we want.

Every time we reach such a point, we somehow get through it. But every time we doubt anything around us and inside us, we should ask ourselves, what can we do in this situation? How can we figure out what to do and be okay with it once we do it?

Let’s break this dilemma into smaller parts. What does the uncertainty problem consist of? Decisions. A decision here, a little decision there. If we don’t know what to do in minor things, it will build up.

What should we listen to in order to decide? Emotions? Rational thinking? Gut feeling? Toss a coin (to your witcher) and be done with it?

Before I try to answer the questions, I’d like to differentiate between emotions and gut feeling. For me, gut feeling is an inner subconscious feeling that doing something feels right to us. We don’t know why, but one option just feels right. It is the feeling when we just know what to do next. If that is the case, then we are not talking about a decision dilemma. If we know what to do, there is no problem with choosing.

I will not be talking about immediate decisions done under stress, anger, overconfidence, etc. as those are not uncertainty dilemmas. Those are subconscious reactions to what is happening around us at the moment. As a rule of thumb, try to avoid those. Get calm, slow down and let’s use our rational brains in such situations. If we do that, I guarantee we will have fewer things to regret.

What I mean by a decision based on emotions would be one driven by our fears and expectations. Usually, it is deciding for the easier path. The one where we don’t see that many dangers. The one which fulfills our secret desire we are not willing to admit even to ourselves. A decision based on emotion assumes too much and is linked to what we would like to feel or avoid feeling.

Such a decision usually ends up in our naive pursue of making our original expectations happen. If they don’t we are unhappy. We don’t have what we thought we would. Or they get us to a place we didn’t want to be, but we are there because it was easier. In such a case, we are not happy because we are not doing what we would like to be doing. Of course, the naive assumption of moving to a different city because of a girl you have a crush on can end up in a “they lived happily ever after”, but come on, what is the chance of that?

What is even worse about such decisions, is their nature of being linked to our emotions. If we are doing something based on emotion, we tend to be rooted deeper as if we decided based on rational reason. This means, if the decision turns out to be wrong, we are ready to suffer longer. We stick to it just because we are proud individuals protecting our childish egos. We consider our feelings more private and admitting to ourselves that our feelings were misplaced or naive is much more difficult than admitting that we did not calculate something correctly.

Emotional decision-making comes with a cost. It is based on our inbuilt thinking patterns and reactions. It is based on all the stereotypes and prejudices we collected from our environment over the years. It is linked to our personal comfort and perception of safety. It is our reactive mechanism to protect us from risks and dangers. It boxes us into behavior we already know. It expresses itself depending on our personality. If we don’t like change, it prevents us from trying anything new. It makes us protective. It closes us to new ideas. If we like change, it will drive us from place to place. It tells us to leave a problem instead of solving it, to get away from commitments and responsibility. It seeks what we have always sought.

Emotions are not a solid and reliable basis for doing the right thing when we are uncertain. Decision-making based on a feeling is a lottery, it either works, or it doesn’t.

With emotions out of the way, would rationality get us out of the fog of uncertainty?

Reason tells us to slow down first. It tells the neuron on the path to trigger an immediate reaction to stop. To take a detour through the thinking part of our brain. This detour allows us to filter out emotions. It gives us a chance to look at the facts. It wants us to break the problem into smaller parts. Look at it from other perspectives than our own. It guides us to study the problem, ask additional questions, and figure it all out. It shines in figuring out how to do something better. It allows us to predict, to first look where we leap. But it also takes a lot of joy and ease from our lives.

Rational thinking takes us away from living our lives and instead it gives us what-ifs.

When we try to use rationality at everything, we often end up indecisive. There are so many things to take into consideration, so many more questions that need answers before we can decide. So many more decisions to make. Pros and cons for every choice. Reason wants us to do the logical decision, but it rarely gives us a clear answer. Our inner self can talk us into anything and also find excuses for anything. Rationality can prefer one option, then reconsider. Once it does, it starts doubting the reconsideration. It gives us too much stuff to think about. Sometimes it will give us a clear answer, other times it will get us more stuck than just choosing one and be done with it.

How does reason choose between a fulfilling job far away from family or a better-paid job closer to it? What about a run with our best friend and finishing the project which might give us a promotion? Who would be the rational choice to be our partner? Can we rationally figure it out? Should we?

Usually, when we face multiple options, we find rational arguments for and against all possibilities. In each option, there is something we feel good about and something we don’t. Neither emotions nor rational thinking helps. What else do we have at our disposal to help us do the right choice?

If we don’t want to get stuck in a never-ending what-if cycle and then doubt the choice we made, we need a way that would give us clarity and feel right. We need a way to figure out what the fuck we want to do.

Deciding is in its nature a state of uncertainty. If it wasn’t there would be nothing to decide. Every decision we make changes what we do and who we are. Moving to a new city, quitting our job, committing to a relationship, being nice to someone rude to us, cooking instead of eating out, playing games instead of studying. Each decision and repeating these decisions shapes who we are. Our characters are built by our choices.

This means, knowing how to decide is very close to knowing who we want to be. We need to know what is important to us, we need to know what our core values are.

Core values represent what we believe is right. The maxims from philosophy, quotes from people we admire. A piece of wisdom or idea we agree with. Core values represent our consciousness. Core values should not be a mirror of our current selves. We are flawed. We make mistakes all the time. Which is okay. Core values should reflect who we would like to be if we didn’t mess it up. If we did what we thought was right, not what we were comfortable with doing. Core values are our ideals, our perceptions of us if we were always doing what we believe in.

If we reach a point where our rationality cannot decide one way or the other we take a step back. We relax and we think about who will we become if we decide for one, or for the other. What would such choice tell the world about who we are? We try to imagine where the choice would lead us as persons. What kind of sacrifice does each option represent? Then, we start to read our core values one by one. We think and observe. Which option rings more bells with our desired self?

We are what we do and thus, if we are not sure of what to do next, we should do what a person we want to be, would do.

When I faced a complex decision between two great job opportunities, both awesome in their own regard, I could not decide which one is better. The question which helped me decide was: “What kind of a man will I be if I take this choice?”

Once I changed the problem from a matter of rational arguments to a matter of values, it was easy to know, what I wanted.

We can feel a decision based on our core values is right. It is similar to the gut feeling but it has the rationality behind it. With a gut feeling, we don’t know why it feels right. With core values, we do. We know why one option is more us than the other.

Deciding based on our core values helps us to overcome the struggle of doubting ourselves. If we decide based on our values, our consciousness is satisfied. If the decision we have made turns out to be not beneficial to us, we still have the feeling of having done the right thing. Why? Because we did what we believed was right at the moment we did it. Doing the right thing doesn’t feel so bad even if it doesn’t turn out to be the success we wanted.

Doing what we think is right doesn’t sound that hard, does it? In fact, it is. It is difficult to suppress emotions or rationality and figure out what would be the right thing to do. It is even harder when stakes are high. Becoming a better person is hard, staying the same flawed person we are, is much easier.

Fight to be the person you wish to be

Feeling motivated and not knowing where to start?

Open a doc and write down the values you believe in. Write down quotes you like. Write down ideas. Try to put together generic ones. The maxims. Don’t worry if you forget something or put in something which will not last. It isn’t a one-time job. Putting together our values and beliefs is an ongoing all-life process. Just come up with a draft, in time you will cross some stuff out, add some stuff in, use other words to say the same. It doesn’t matter. What matters is realizing what you believe is right. What kind of behavior you would love to have. Put together any sentences that describe the best you, you can imagine.

Once you are done with the first draft. Go through it. Think about every sentence you’ve put down. When have you acted by the specific value and when have you acted against it? Try to understand yourself. Figure out when you are not who you would like to be. It is ok to make mistakes. Yet it is crucial to learn from them.

Once you have some idea of when you are behaving and when you aren’t, you have the next goal. Try to think about your values next time you are not sure about what to do. When you face a choice, open your values list. Read through it one by one.

If thinking from your core values becomes your practice, then you continue heading them with action.

Say yes to things that are aligned with your core values. Say no to things that are against your core values.

It is not only about things and decisions. It is also about people.

Say yes to relationships that come out from your core values. Say yes to people who share the same core values. Build new friendships with people who are in their core most similar to your values. If you do, you soon realize, you have fewer arguments with people around you as most of them see the important things similarly.

Do you lack honesty in your life? Do you value honest people who are true to their words? Then be such a person yourself. Mind your words and only say what you truly believe and support at any time. Don’t tell things nicer nor uglier than they are, tell them exactly as they are. If you bring honesty to your every thought, word and act, you will make honesty a habit. The habit will forge your character. The more you focus on telling the truth to yourself, the more clearly you identify dishonesty around you. If you are an honest person, your relationships with dishonest people deteriorate. Once you make honesty part of your character, you will not choose dishonest people to be a part of your life.

The more we build our lives around the core values, the more satisfied with it we are. Because how can’t we be satisfied with a life that is in full harmony with what we find important?

If despite that we are not happy, then we are probably missing something within our core values. Or we just do not live in full accordance with them as we should be.

Core values are not static and unchangeable. We learn new things, we experience new things. Our character grows and so should our core values. If we stop believing that something is right, we should replace it with something we do believe in. If we find out something misses in our core values, we should add it. Core values should undergo evolution: Only the ones that fit there at every moment of our lives should stay there. The rest should let be.

A little summary on how to decide when stuck.

If emotions are flowing within us, calm down before we decide. Step back, take your time, breathe in, breathe out.

Once the emotions are out of the table, turn to reason.

Get the facts together, ask yourself relevant questions.

Get objective, think about the consequences, evaluate.

Try to gain another point of view, re-evaluate.

If still stuck, get to your core values. Choose the option which feels most like your ideal you.

Let your core values evolve with time.

Mind your integrity and don’t allow anything to destroy it.

In case you are looking for inspiration, here is a draft of my core values. I kept the doc open for comments, feel free to do so!